Friday, March 20, 2020

US Debt To GDP Will Hit New All-Time High In 2020

Summary
Coronavirus is no plague or Spanish-flu, but we aren't who we once were either.  So the end result may be the same?!?
The young (representing the future) cannot cover the rapidly growing debt...and the policies to avoid dealing with the debt are ultimately destroying future economic activity.
The US is going bankrupt in half measures but double time.  Global depression is now unavoidable and imminent.
Some thoughts on Coronavirus...
1- The Coronavirus ain't no black plague or Spanish-flu.  Those were true killers that wiped out young and old without regard for the strength or age of the afflicted.  In fact, Spanish-flu was attracted to the young adults above all else.
2- However, Coronavirus has come along when the 1st world is at its most vulnerable.  Never have more elderly been artificially kept alive beyond their natural expiration dates by drugs and our 1st world medical system promoting quantity over quality.  Never has the 1st world been more obese and suffered from more "lifestyle" diseases than now.  Hypertension, Type-2 diabetes, heart disease, smoking / vaping lung related issues, drug abuse, etc.  The 1st world has the best medicine in world history but capacity is limited and the vulnerable hordes will overwhelm our hospitals.  BTW - one of the most vulnerable of populations are the truckers responsible for maintaining transportation...this weak link should be very worrisome.
3- In the end, I suggest a rather middling grade virus will likely hunt the unprecedented number of weak, infirm, and vulnerable and kill on par with real killers of the past.  Meanwhile, the strong and healthy will likely find this like a very bad flu year...but due to the overwhelming #'s requiring the medical system, even many of the strong that would have survived with available care may perish.  While the 2nd and 3rd world aren't nearly as old, overweight, and vulnerable as the 1st world...unfortunately they don't have the medical systems to cope with this and the result will likely be very bad.
And what of the federal response to this pandemic?  It appears disjointed, half-hearted, and entirely left up to every state, city, county, company, and ultimately the individual as to how to appropriately respond...The only sure thing is Congress and the President willing to throw good money after bad.
In 2020, the federal government will spend like drunken sailors...borrowing from our future selves to pay our present selves.  The chart below details the rising public vs. Intragovernmental debt (SS, etc.) against the inverse instigator of debt, the Federal Funds rate.
Put in context, below the annual change in the under 60 year-old population (green line) and over 60 year-old population (yellow line) contrasted with the Federal funds rate (black dashed line), and public debt (red columns) vs. Intragovernmental debt (blue columns).  Not so hard to see this is a demographic issue at its core.  Obviously, I'm estimating the 2020 federal deficit to end up around $2.8 trillion of which likely 100%+ will be public debt (little to no IG net purchasing).
And what will the next five years look like?  The demographics will slightly shift as the growth of the elderly population decelerates but the projection for the under 60 year-old population is a gentle upturn.  But this upturn is highly unlikely as it assumes rising births (births continue declining) and high rates of immigration will return (2019 saw a huge deceleration in immigration due to border enforcement...and now with Coronavirus, immigration may be a net zero) and ongoing strong economic activity (lol).  So, the under 60 year-old population declines will likely accelerate rather than return to growth.  Of course, federal debt will be surging to cover unfunded liabilities, unemployment, bailouts, etc. etc. while Intragovermental funds turn to a net seller.
Anyway, this signifies that 2020 will likely be the year that federal debt to GDP surpasses the previous peak set in WWII.  This coincides with the decline in the consumer (and base of credit creation) that is the working age population.
But unfortunately, the debt will continue to blow out against even any modest GDP growth.  The chart below assumes 1.5% GDP growth through 2025 versus constant $2 trillion annual deficits after the 2020 $2.8 trillion blowout.  While the under 65-year old population was projected to return to minimal growth, the Coronavirus is likely to turn that projected growth to decline and further decelerating potential economic activity.
And just to put this debt in context, below I show the relatively constant of under 20 year-old US population (the future that is responsible for servicing the debt) versus the rapidly growing federal debt.
Finally, putting the debt into personal terms against America's future.  While this population is not yet old enough to vote, they are sure to feel the full impact of the debt.  Of course, over the course of their lives, they can never repay the debt nor can they even honestly service the interest payments.  Instead they continue to see Federal Reserve policies rewarding the banks, large institutions, the asset holders, and the elderly.  But this is only federal debt...if we added the soaring unfunded liabilities, you can likely quintuple those per-capita dollar amounts.
This debt is like an ever heavier weight spread across a population that isn't growing...and eventually the policies of avoidance will crush whatever is under it.

And just one more means to gauge the growth of federal debt against the future, annual US births.  Of course this is inclusive of all births regardless the parents legal or illegal status.
And dividing the debt (present and future liability) against those responsible for this debt (the future adults)...if you don't see the issue here, it's only because you don't want to see it (and this doesn't include the unfunded liabilities that are something like 4x's the size of the national debt and growing just as fast).
Global Outlook
Putting this into the global picture...the chart below is exempt Africa but looking at the annual global change in under 40 year-old females (red columns), over 40 year-old females (blue columns), annual global births (black line), and federal funds rate (yellow line).  Births (x-Africa) have been declining since 1998 and are now down 18 million annually from that peak.  But in 2020, the female global childbearing population (x-Africa) begins declining...and significantly faster declines in births should be anticipated (although they are not).  And all this was before Coronavirus...obviously, the situation will be more acute post Coronavirus.
The chart below of UN population data shows that before the Coronavirus, it just so happens that 2020 was year when the 1st world working age population was set to begin its secular decline.  The population that consumes 70% of all commodities, 75% of all exports, and 80% of all the income/savings/access to credit begins a secular decline.  Africa and Asia (excluding East Asia that is part of the 1st world) are reliant on the growth of the 1st world for their own growth...without 1st world growth, the 2nd and 3rd world economies are set to fall hard.
Post-Coronavirus, the situation will be 2x or 5x or 10x worse.  Global depression is imminent and will continue for an indefinite period as depopulation, deleveraging, and decline are the natural state of things.  Cast off the lifeboats...the Titanic is going down and we'll be in small boats on very rough seas from here on.  This was going to happen eventually, Coronavirus has just accelerated the timeline.

The global demographics behind this, the impact on energy consumption, the interest rates, and why this is inescapable is detailed from UN data (HERE).  I am not saying we don't still have choices, just no happy choices.  We can take actions to avoid worst case scenarios, prioritize the critical over desirable, and prepare for a new and different future...or we can just continue fighting the last war.
Invest accordingly (WTF?!?)

Sunday, March 8, 2020

Era of Growth, Corona-Virus, Era of Decline. Discuss.

I'm going to suggest that the Corona-virus is more a window or a marker that separates what will be seen as the end of an era and the beginning of another.  Corona-virus is serious, global, and appears it will cause significant death and disruption.  There is likely to be 9 to 18 months of global pandemic with a potential of high infection and significant loss of life.  But after the pandemic, things are more likely to return to "normal".  Corona-virus itself isn't the problem (no more than Spanish Flu was in 1918/1919).  And it's the discussion of what is the "normal" we have seen over the past 7 decades versus the current and coming decades that I hope to spur.

To begin, the chart below shows the annual change in the under 60 year old US population (green line) versus annual change in 60+ year old US population (yellow line).  Also shown is annual US federal deficit split between public debt (red columns) and Intragovernmental (IG...blue columns representing Social Security, etc.), and lastly the federal funds rate (black line).  Simply, as population growth of the working age population slowed, first large scale legal and illegal immigration was utilized to maintain economic and financial growth.  However, since 2008, working age population growth has rapidly decelerated and immigration slowed...and in their place have come interest rate cuts to zero and accompanying massive debt (I show federal debt below, but corporate debt has also binged of the nearly free money to buy their own stock and pay dividends).  2019 was the first year in US history the working-age population declined...and of course all net US population growth now comes among the elderly.  The elderly who, on average, earn/spend half as much as during their peak years, are highly credit averse, and prefer to pay down existing mortgages and debt.  Oh, and 2020 births and immigration are trending even lower while Federal debt creation has the potentially to surpass the '08/'09 levels as Trump pushes for further tax cuts / infrastructure, etc. spending.

Consider the relationships.Changing gears but still moving tangentially, the weekly change in Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasury bonds (yellow columns), Federal Funds Rate (black line), and the impact of that purchasing on the Wilshire 5000 (red line representing all publicly traded US equities).  Look again at the chart above of the fast decelerating growth of potential employees, potential consumers, potential stock purchasers among the working-age.  Consider the mandatory selling of the elderly...and then...
Consider the rationale and relationship of the above chart for the Fed's "activism" below and the impact of Fed purchasing / selling has on the asset pricing.Broadening out to show the weekly change in Federal Reserve held mortgage backed securities (MBS...blue columns), Treasuries (yellow columns), Federal Funds Rate, and again the Wilshire 5000 (red line).

Again, consider the Fed's motivation and the relationship of Fed buying on asset prices.  Assets sky-rocket during periods of purchasing and are either highly volatile or show outright declines during periods of Federal Reserve asset sales.Perhaps also worthy of some discussion is the Fed's experiment to control interest rates via interest paid on excess reserves (IOER).  Just a reminder, prior to '08, banks collectively held literally a few billion in excess reserves but in the '09 GFC, the Fed stuffed them with excess reserves.  The excess reserves peaked just prior to the end of QE and began precipitously declining years prior to any balance sheet reductions by the Fed.  However, during that intermediate period while the Fed was raising the Federal Funds Rate, the Fed also raised the interest paid to the largest banks on those trillions in excess reserves.  Despite the fast rising, Fed sponsored, risk-free returns for lending no money, excess reserves plummeted.  What is so fascinating is that when the Fed felt compelled to begin cutting the FFR (and the IOER's), reducing the returns on those excess reserves...the Fed also restarted QE (or "Not-QE") and magically bank excess reserves ceased declining and began rising!?!  An increase in excess of $400 billion in Fed held Treasuries has coincided with a nearly $250 billion increase in excess reserves?!?

However, despite the $1.5 trillion in excess reserves, banks (and others) are oversubscribing Fed repo auctions at record levels in a liquidity crisis (like the ancient tale of mariners stuck in the doldrums; "water, water every where, but not a drop to drink")...perhaps this is worthy of some discussion?Next, consider the Fed's holdings of US Treasuries by durations and the resultant impact on the spread of the 10 year Treasury minus the 2 year Treasury.  Prior to the GFC, the Fed conducted their policy rather banker like, in a rather boring fashion.  However, since the GFC, the Fed is spastically dumping one duration while pouring into another attempting to control the Frankenstein they created.
And a focus on the Fed's holdings of short term US Treasury bills versus the yield on the 3 month Treasury bill.  Check out the action on the far right...and perhaps this is discussion worthy?  The Fed is currently buying every duration, but more than anything, is sucking up bills at an unprecedented rate?!?  It appears the Fed is aggressively swapping conjured cash for bills in an attempt to "liquify" credit and simultaneously pushing the yields on the short end down to avoid significant inversion?!?  But why remove the most liquid assets rather than the least, as they did previously?Global Annual Working-Age Population Growth
But now widen out and put all this into a global scope.  If we look at annual global working-age population growth (black dashed line below) split among the 1st world (blue line), Asia (excluding East Asia), and Africa (red line)...the picture of what is happening in the US makes a little more sense.  The working-age population of the 1st world begins a secular decline as of 2020.  For those curious, the 1st world below is collectively including all of the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Oceania, Russia and Eastern Europe, plus East Asia (China, Japan, S/N Korea)).  The 1st world consumes 75% of all commodities, has over 80% of the income, and consumes even more of the global exports...this is the population that takes out over 90% of the credit.  And as for Africa and Asia (excluding East Asia), they are totally reliant on the first world growth to export their cheap labor, cheap commodities, and finished goods.  Without growth in the first world consumer base, these 2nd and 3rd world nations haven't an oar in the water.  BTW - the population growth estimates below are inclusive of present rates of immigration from 2nd/3rd world to 1st world...as borders are locked down for political or pandemic reasons, the declines in the 1st world will likely be significantly larger.
And all this was before any inclusion of a likely pandemic (as detailed HERE).  Now, disruption and dislocation is likely on top of 1st world working age depopulation.  Discuss.

All Population data from UN World Population Prospects, 2019 report.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Global Demographic Fact Vs. Central Bank Sorcery

Summary
  • The annual growth of the working-age population is the organic baseline for growth in national, regional, and global consumption.
  • However, since World War II, interest rate policy has moved inversely of annual working-age population growth, to incent ever more debt as working-age population growth has decelerated to nothing.
  • Interestingly, total annual change in energy consumption has mirrored annual working-age population growth.except where synthetic growth has been temporarily substituted to maintain the appearance of growth (aka, China).
  • Eventually, the inorganically rising consumption and asset prices will return to their organic baseline.and that will be a very rude new dawn for those who believed in infinite growth.

The 1st world economy lives within a fractional reserve banking system.  In a fractional reserve system, one persons debt is the systems new money, as money is lent into existence. At a progressive rate since 1980, it has been the combination of decelerating working-age population growth, declining interest rates, and ramping utilization of privately loaned debt that has simultaneously been the basis for increasing consumption and the creation of new money.  As borrowers undertook new loans prior to 2008, this borrowing was the primary means of monetary growth.  However, the changing demography since 2008  has changed everything as population growth has shifted from young to old...and federal governments and central banks have taken over money creation via monetization resulting in asset inflation.
  1. New debt is primarily undertaken in the 1st world nations where income and savings are higher but also credit is readily available and standards for this credit vary widely, by asset type (zero for student loans, low for vehicles, moderate to high for homes...since '07).
  2. It is primarily the working-age population that undertakes new debt while those in the post working age population tend to deleverage and pay down existing loans (this has the opposite monetary effect of destroying money). 
  3. From 1950 to 2008, it was the significantly larger developed world growth of the working-age population over that of the post working-age population that supported new debt, money creation, and rising asset prices…the current and future reversal of these proportions is the likely rationale for federal governments and central banks to engage in ZIRP, NIRP, QE, and other activist / experimental policies to offset the demographic driven collapse in the money supply.
  4. The lending amid the declining working age population among the developed world and the decelerating growth among Asia cannot be made up by accelerating demographic growth in Africa.  Global inequality and lack of broadly shared wealth means Africa hasn't the income, savings, and/or access to credit to provide significant global demand.

So, it's the growth of the working-age population in the developed world that is critical for the growth of money within a fractional reserve system.  And that working-age growth need be significantly greater than the growth of the credit averse post working-age population. Growth among the working-age population in Asia (excluding East Asia + Singapore) and/or Africa has relatively little impact as the vast majority there have relatively little income, savings, and/or access to credit.
I divide the world into three mega-regions: developed world, Asia, Africa.

They consist of the following and as of 2020, with following proportions…

Developed World = Western Hemisphere, Oceania, West/East Europe Including Russia), East Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, S/N Korea)
  • 47% of global working age population but -4% of annual growth in global working age population
    • By 2030, developed world will represent -31% of annual growth in global working-age population
    • By 2040, developed world will represent -19% of annual growth in global working-age population
    • 1st world is 74% of global energy consumption
Asia = (South Asia, Middle East, Central Asia) 
  • 39% of global working-age population but 61% of annual growth in global working-age population
    • By 2030, Asia will represent 59% of annual growth in global working-age population
    • By 2040, Asia will represent 34% of annual growth in global working-age population
    • Asia is 22.5% of global energy consumption
Africa
  • 14% of global working-age population but 42% of annual growth in global working age population
    • By 2030, Africa will represent 72% of annual growth in global working-age population
    • By 2040, Africa will represent 85% of annual growth in global working-age population
    • Africa is 3.5% of global energy consumption
Global Working-Age Demography:
The chart below shows total annual growth (in millions) among the 20 to 60-year-old global population.  Global annual growth of working age adults peaked in 2007.  Since then, annual working age population growth has been decelerating, and by 2030 will be less than half the peak annual growth. What growth remains has shifted to the poorest and turned to outright declines among the relatively wealthier nations.
  • Annual working-age growth in the 1st world has ceased as of 2020, and now outright progressively larger declines will be a secular feature indefinitely.
  • Annual growth among Asia is decelerating and will continue to decelerate indefinitely.
  • Annual growth in Africa is accelerating and will do so through mid-century.

The second chart breaks out the geographical location of the annual 20 to 60 year-old total population growth. This is so critical, because again, it is the far higher incomes, savings, and access to credit among the 1st world working-age population that drives consumption, debt, and resultant money creation (via fractional reserve banking).

Note that the majority of working age population growth was in the 1st world through 1995 and 1st world growth remained a strong feature until 2008. From 2008, the inevitable decline of the 1st world working age population (given the previous decades of declining births and fertility rates...see charts at article end), has meant a collapsing portion of working age growth in the 1st world. And as the chart below details, this 1st world decline is about to get far more severe. Note the portion of growth in Asia will soon peak and begin decelerating rapidly. This leaves a ramping portion of the working age population growth in Africa. This is so important as the population growth of the working-age in Africa is among those with the lowest global incomes (less than 1/10th those of the first world), minimal savings, and little to no access to credit.  This African working age population growth is like multiplying a large number against a tiny fraction. There is little monetary capability for consumption or credit driven demand...there is also no money multiplier.

Impact of Working-Age Demography on Energy Consumption:
Next, I use total energy consumption as the best proxy for real economic capacity and demand. The chart below again splits the world energy consumption among the 1st world, Asia, and Africa (primary energy consumption equals all oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy consumed in each region). What should be abundantly clear is the 1st world is consuming energy far beyond their share as a population, Asia rising but still far below that of the 1st.  Also noteworthy is the sustained minimal energy consumption of Africa.

Next, looking at energy consumption as a percentage of total consumption by region. Note the percentage growth of consumption in Asia, inverse deceleration of the 1st world energy consumption, and the near non-existence of Africa as a global energy consumer. Africa has consistently consumed only 2% to 4% and shows no signs of imminent increase.

It is clear the 1st world plus Asia do nearly all the consuming (96.5% of the global consuming...true for energy, true for exports, etc.) and these trends show no imminent signs of change and actually it appears with the deceleration taking place in the 1st world, Africa is decelerating with them (details at end of article).  The impacts of the current potential pandemic will only exaggerate the already baked-in decelerations/declines.

Elderly Global Demographics:
But what of the deleveraging elderly?
The next chart focuses on the break-down of the annual 60+ year-old global population growth. As of 2020, the share of elderly (60+ year-olds) around the world is highly skewed to the 1st-world with the following proportions:
  • 1st-world; 65% of 60+ year-olds, 57% of annual growth in elderly
  • Asia; 28% of 60+ year-olds, 35% of annual growth
  • Africa; 7% of 60+ year-olds, 8% of annual growth
60+ year-old annual growth will peak in 2030 and begin decelerating thereafter with annual growth shifting away from first world to Asia and Africa.

Below, the breakdown by region of the still surging growth in 60+ year-olds. At present, the growth is trending toward Asia and away from the 1st world…however, sometime after 2030, the portion of growth in Africa is projected to begin rising and 1st world growth decelerate significantly.

So, by 2030…
  • Global working age population growth will slow by 45%
  • Global working age population growth will shift almost entirely to Africa, decelerate in Asia, and continue declining in the 1st world
  • Global growth in elderly will continue surging, particularly in the 1st world and Asia The impacts on credit/debt utilization and consumption among the declining 1st world working age population should be severely negative with little to no chance for the growth in Africa to overcome the collapsing 1st world demand. With this situation, a negative feedback loop is established for real assets such as homes, commercial real estate, consumer goods (cars, phones, appliances, etc.) and the factories and supply chains that support these. A global decline in real consumption is highly likely as these demographic trends play out and secular economic depression will be the primary feature for decades.
This is the siren song to the central banks to artificially create inflation through monetization rather than rising demand. The current rising asset prices via monetization and interest rate policy misuse is only worsening the eventual workout and rebalancing of the system.

Breaking down the Regions:
1st World
The chart below shows annual births (black columns), the 20 to 40 year-old childbearing female population (yellow line), and post childbearing female population (red line).
The 1st world childbearing female population peaked in 2009 and has been declining ever since.  The declining number of 1st world females (inclusive of immigrants) coupled with declining and far below replacement fertility rates, means 1st world births continue the 5+ decade trend of declining.  However, with the faster decline in childbearing females, there appears to be a quickening to the downside of births underway, falling millions below the UN’s projected 2018 / 2019 medium variant below.

2020 is the first year of outright 20 to 60 year-old working age declines in the 1st world (blue columns) and a slight trough in the surging 60+ year-old elderly growth.  Also, hard to miss the demographic cliff’s edge that was 2008 and the free-fall in annual growth since.

Through 2017, the 1st world consumes 437 quadrillion BTU’s or 75% of global energy (blue line) but the clear association of year over year changes (red columns) with economic accelerations/decelerations is plain to see.  The energy consumption data is unequivocally pointing to the fact we were/are in a period of slowing growth or outright decline.

Below, including the 2018 through 2040 EIA energy growth consumption projections.  While the 1st world working-age population & childbearing females decline, and births plummet (not to mention ongoing adoption of energy conservation and energy saving technologies), 1st world energy consumption is anticipated to continue rising at nearly 2/3rds the average pace it has since 1980.  The 1st world is projected to account for about 44% of the global growth in energy consumption through 2040.

And adding total 1st-world energy consumption plus year over year changes in energy consumption vs. year over year changes in 20 to 60 year-olds 1st world residents.  Again, the declining population versus projected energy consumption growth makes no sense.  *The EIA current and projected data has discrepancies, better to focus on the annual projected energy consumption changes.

Asia (Excluding East Asia)
The accelerating pace of annual births in Asia ended in 1986.  While Asian births  peaked in 2009, they have essentially been unchanged for nearly three and half decades.  Likewise, the growth of the Asian childbearing females (yellow line) has been decelerating and as of 2020, the population of post-childbearing females has exceeded the childbearing females.  Both trends will quicken over the upcoming decades.  With a flattening female childbearing population coupled with soon to be negative fertility rates in Asia, a larger deceleration in annual births than projected below is the likely outcome.

The decelerating annual growth of the working-age Asian population (blue columns, below) versus the accelerating post working-age Asians (red columns) is hard to miss.

Asia (excluding East Asia) consumes 21.6% of global energy as of 2018.  Interestingly, the declines in Asian energy consumption during 1st world economic downturns are not as deep as seen in East Asia and/or Africa.

Below, 2018 through 2040 EIA energy consumption projections.  While Asian annual working-age population growth continues decelerating and annual Asian births declining, energy consumption is projected to continue accelerating in Asia to nearly double the average pace energy consumption rose from 1980 through 2017.  Asia is projected to account for about 47% of the growth in global energy consumption through 2040.

And adding total Asian energy consumption plus year over year changes in energy consumption vs. year over year changes in 20 to 60 year-old Asians.  The decelerating growth versus expectations of accelerating energy consumption are illogical.

Africa
Births, childbearing females, and post childbearing females are all rapidly rising, though births are decelerating.

African annual working age population growth is rising rapidly but growth will be decelerating in the 2030’s before a peak in annual growth sometime around 2050.  The 60+ year old annual growth is far slower than the other regions but beginning to accelerate.

Africa consumes 3.4% of global energy.  But critically, gauging by energy consumption, Africa is significantly more reliant on first world demand and far more impacted by first world slowdowns than Asia.  This seems to imply that the 1 st world declines in demand and decelerating Asian growth will have outsized negative reverberations in Africa.  This seems to suggest that Africa will suffer more than any other region in the next downturn and that it’s positive demographics will do little for it.  Likewise, Africa’s population growth, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa, has relatively little access to emigration due to extreme poverty coupled with geographic barriers of the Sahara Desert to the North and oceans all around. 
Below, 2018 through 2040 EIA energy consumption projections.  While 1st world population and demand declines and Asia growth decelerates...Africa's energy consumption is projected to grow at 250% the pace it did from 1980 through 2017.  This does not seem credible and is likely entirely opposite the decelerating consumption growth that is likely to happen.  Africa is projected to account for 9% of the growth in global primary energy consumption through 2040.

And adding total African energy consumption plus year over year changes in energy consumption vs. year over year changes in 20 to 60 year-old Africans.

Conclusion:  It is fairly easy to suggest what will not happen going forward and what will happen instead.  Population growth, particularly among 1st world and Asian working age populations, will decline / decelerate (respectively) and the likely decline in births will be greater than projected above.  Energy consumption will almost surely grow far less than projected above with a fairly good potential for outright decline.  Central banks and federal governments will continue to progressively intervene to artificially prop up demand and asset valuations amid a perpetually weakening architecture.  The weaker the organic demand is, the more interest rates will go down and asset prices will rise.  Fundamentals and historical norms will be progressively less reliable as a centrally directed politicization of the economy, currency, and financial system continues to override free market capitalism.

What isn't easy to say is how long this current propping proceeds before something breaks, what that break looks like, and what comes after the current system breaks down.

All population data is taken from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2019 report; energy data from the EIA data on Primary Energy Consumption (US Energy Information Administration) and EIA International Energy Outlook 2019 (future energy consumption projections).
Supplemental Data, by Nation:
East Asia
China: $15.5 trillion GDP, 1.4 billion persons (18.5%) consume 24% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Below, total energy consumption (black line), projected consumption (dashed line), year over year change in consumption (red columns), and year over year 20 to 60 year-old population change (green columns).

Japan: $5.5 trillion GDP, 126 million persons (1.6%) consume 3.3% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Below, total energy consumption (black line), projected consumption (dashed line), year over year change in consumption (red columns), and year over year 20 to 60 year-old population change (green columns).

South Korea: $1.75 trillion GDP, 51 million persons (0.7%) consume 2.1% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Below, total energy consumption (black line), projected consumption (dashed line), year over year change in consumption (red columns), and year over year 20 to 60 year-old population change (green columns).

Taiwan: $650 billion GDP, 24 million persons (0.3%) consume 0.8% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Federal Res. Discount Rate
Europe
Germany: $4.1 trillion GDP, 84 million persons (1.1%) consume 2.4% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column). Chart below from 1991 reunification through 2017.
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
UK: $2.9 trillion GDP, 68 million persons (0.9%) consume 1.4% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
France: $2.8 trillion GDP, 65 million persons (0.8%) consume 1.8% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Italy: $2.1 trillion GDP, 60 million persons (0.8%) consume 1.2% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Spain: $1.5 trillion GDP, 47 million persons (0.6%) consume 1% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Netherlands: $950 billion GDP, 17 million person (0.2%) consume 0.7% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Switzerland: $750 billion GDP, 9 million persons (0.1%) consume 0.2% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Sweden: $575 billion GDP, 10 million persons (0.1%) consume 0.4% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Belgium: $550 billion GDP, 12 million persons (0.15%) consume 0.5% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, German Discount Rate
Austria: $500 billion GDP, 9 million persons (0.1%) consume 0.26% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, German Discount Rate
Greece: $225 billion GDP, 10 million persons (0.1%) consume 0.2% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Eastern Europe
Russia: $1.7 trillion GDP, 146 million persons (1.9%) consume 5.6% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Below, total energy consumption (black line), projected consumption (dashed line), year over year change in consumption (red columns), and year over year 20 to 60 year-old population change (green columns).

Poland: $650 billion GDP, 38 million persons (0.5%) consume 0.7% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
North America
Canada: $1.8 trillion GDP, 38 million persons (0.5%) consume 2.6% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
US of A: $22 trillion GDP, 330 million persons (4.3%) consume 17% global energy
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Below, total energy consumption (black line), projected consumption (dashed line), year over year change in consumption (red columns), and year over year 20 to 60 year-old population change (green columns).

Oceania
Australia: $1.5 trillion GDP, 26 million persons (0.3%) consume 1.1%...New Zealand: $225 billion GDP, 5 million persons (0.06%) consume 0.2% global energy
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Latin America
Brazil: $2.1 trillion GDP, 213 million persons (2.7%) consume 2.2% global energy
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Below, total energy consumption (black line), projected consumption (dashed line), year over year change in consumption (red columns), and year over year 20 to 60 year-old population change (green columns).

Mexico: $1.3 trillion GDP, 129 million persons (1.65%) consume 1.4% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Argentina: $500 billion GDP, 45 million persons (0.6%) consume 0.7% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Colombia: $350 billion GDP, 51 million persons (0.65%) consume 0.3% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Chile: $315 billion GDP, 19 million persons (0.25%) consume 0.26% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Peru: $240 billion GDP, 33 million persons (0.4%) consume 0.2% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Ecuador: $110 billion GDP, 18 million persons (0.23%) consume 0.12% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Venezuela: $70 billion GDP, 28 million persons (0.36%) consume 0.4% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Dominican Republic: $90 billion GDP, 11 million persons (0.14%) consume 0.06% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Guatemala: $85 billion GDP, 18 million persons (0.23%) consume 0.05% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
South Asia
India: $3.3 trillion GDP, 1.38 billion persons (17.7%) consume 5.2% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Below, total energy consumption (black line), projected consumption (dashed line), year over year change in consumption (red columns), and year over year 20 to 60 year-old population change (green columns).

Indonesia: $1.2 trillion GDP, 274 million persons (3.5%) consume 1.2% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Turkey: $810 billion GDP, 84 million persons (1.1%) consume 1.1% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Saudi Arabia: $790 billion GDP, 35 million person (0.45%) consume 1.9% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Iran: $500 billion GDP, 84 million persons (1.1%) consume 2% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Thailand: $550 billion GDP, 70 million persons (0.9%) consume 0.9% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Pakistan: $350 billion GDP, 221 million persons (2.8%) consume 0.55% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Malaysia: $400 billion GDP, 32 million persons (0.4%) consume 0.6% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Philippines: $390 billion GDP, 110 million persons (1.4%) consume 0.3% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Vietnam: $280 billion GDP, 97 million persons (1.25%) consumes 0.6% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Bangladesh: $250 billion GDP, 165 million persons (2.1%) consume 0.25% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).Annual Births, Childbearing, Post ChildbearingAnnual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Africa
Nigeria: $500 billion GDP, 206 million persons (2.65%) consume 0.26% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
South Africa: $390 billion GDP, 59 million persons (0.75%) consume 1% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Egypt: $330 billion GDP, 102 million persons (1.3%) consume 0.7% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Algeria: $190 billion GDP, 44 million persons (0.55%) consumes 0.4% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Morocco: $130 billion GDP, 37 million persons (0.5%) consume 1.4% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Angola: $95 billion GDP, 33 million persons (0.4%) consume 0.06% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Ghana: $70 billion GDP, 31 million persons (0.4%) consume 0.045% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Libya: $50 billion GDP, 7 million persons (0.09%) consume 0.1% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Annual Change; Working-age population, Post working-age population, Discount Rate
Kenya: $110 billion GDP, 54 million persons (0.7%) consume 0.06% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Ethiopia: $100 billion GDP, 115 million persons (1.5%) consume 0.06% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
Tanzania: $65 billion GDP, 60 million persons (0.8%) consume 0.05% global energy.
Total energy consumption (blue line), year over year consumption change (red column).
Annual Births, Childbearing, Post Childbearing
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