A constant and well publicized "fact" is that there is a "housing shortage" resulting in low inventories of available homes for sale and rental vacancies. The solution to this shortage as per the NAR, the POTUS, etc. is to build something like 4 to 7 million more housing units to bring prices down, push inventory up, and balance in the rental market. Only problem with this housing shortage "fact" is that it isn't very factual.
To detail the issue, I'll show that in twenty-eight states, as of year-end 2021, the per capita ratio of housing to population had surpassed the previous peak, seen in 2008. We'll call these states the "ugly". In fact, with the large (near record) quantity of new construction in the pipeline against continued low levels of population growth, the number of states surpassing the previous '08 peak housing-unit-to-population-ratio will rise in excess of 40 states...an additional 15 states set to see record high housing units far in excess of historical norms (we'll call these "the Bad"). Only seven states show the inverse, population growth moving faster than housing growth (or thereabouts)...resulting in declining &/or flattish housing to population ratios (yup, the guessed it, "the Good").
I'll suggest that the housing bubble isn't due to inadequate new housing...but a significant part of that new supply being misallocated as short-term rentals, 2nd/3rd homes, etc. amid the Federal Reserve sponsored, asset inflating, wealth bubble.
To begin, another well-known "fact" is that the US has positive demographics that has boosted the demand for new housing. Again, only trouble with this fact is that it isn't very factual. Many will focus on the 25 to 44 year-old population segment to suggest that this myopic view should supersede the overall demographic trends. Below, I show the year over year change in 16 to 54 year-old US population (orange, millions) versus year over year change in housing units (blue...which unfortunately is only available back to 2000) and also best proxy for viewing changing housing units, housing under construction (black line). FYI- the population spikes are not sudden growth but Census decennial backward looking adjustments...focus on the trend, not the spikes.