According to a recent Morgan Stanley report, linked HERE, the Millennials and Gen Z are about to provide a positive "youth jolt" to power the US economy higher, and "provide a rosier outlook for Social Security and Medicare".
- The Baby Boom represented a massive average increase of 1.6 million births annually over that of the previous Silent generation or a 66% uptick
- Gen Y (Millennials) average annual births increased less than 42 thousand annually over the Baby Boom, a 1.1% increase
- Gen Z average annual births were 230 thousand more than the Baby Boom, a 6% increase
- Gen Alpha (now 6 years underway) average annual births have declined by 155 thousand (-4%) compared to Gen Z
Average annual births by decade seems a whole lot simpler (charted below). Far simpler to gauge the incoming population (those aged 20-29 born from 1990 to 1999) versus the outgoing population (those aged 60-69 born from 1950 to 1959). As the dashed boxes below highlight, on a decade by decade comp basis, the incoming '90-'99 period represents fewer persons than did the outgoing '50-'59 period. The days of easy population driven comps and rising population driven demand are behind us (aka, the demographic tailwind has ended).
But looking at the total picture, the oft cited bright spot is the 25 to 44 year old population growth, according to the 2017 Census Projection. The chart below highlights that 25 to 44 year olds will jump in the coming five year period.
What if we widen the lens to see the entire adult population? The wider Census view details essentially zero growth among the 18 to 24 year olds (green columns), large declines among the 45-64 year olds (red columns), and a gargantuan and unprecedented rise in the 65+ year old population (grey columns). How Morgan Stanley could miss the minimal growth of the working age population going forward (detailed HERE) and the ongoing surge in those not in labor force (detailed HERE), is shocking (LOL).
I mention this because the 75+ year old population will be the driver of US population growth for decades, as the chart below details.
There are an awful lot of analysts very well paid not to mention this mismatch.
What of Those Incoming Young Adults?