Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Tale of Two America's - West

-->Population change by age segment, 2010-->2016
Pacific...under 65yr/old population +1.3m, 65+yr/old population +1.6m
Mountain West...under 65yr/old population +0.9m, 65+yr/old population +0.8m
Break out of Colorado and Utah population growth deceleration vs. remainder of Mountain West.

Under 65yr/old vs. Over 65yr/old Population Growth
Charts below show the change in over vs. under 65yr/old population plus total change, by state from 2010-->2016.  All Western states are among the upper 30 states demographically with growing under and over 65yr/old populations...except for New Mexico which is among the 10 worst states.

Mid 10 states...on average, these states added 0.4 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Next 10 (ok, 11) states...on average, these states added 0.8 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Top 10 (ok, 9) states...on average, these states added 1.8 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Population Growth Breakdown...by state
-->Employment Growth...by period, by state
Pacific job growth, at the state level, decelerates marginally.
Mountain West job growth slows in Colorado and Utah, job growth collapses in remainder of Mountain West.


-->Population vs. Employment...broken down by primary city(s) vs. remainder of state.
-San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego vs. California (x-SF/LA/SD)
Population - California cities represent the bulk of population growth.
Employment - Job growth rises in LA/SF/SD during current cycle, falls by nearly 50% statewide (excluding LA/SF/SD).
-Portland/Seattle vs. Oregon/Washington (x-PDX/SEA)
Population - PDX/Seattle represent bulk of population growth.
Employment - PDX/SEA job growth marginally decelerates during current cycle, statewide (excluding PDX/SEA) sees 60% reduction in job growth.

-Denver / Salt Lake City vs. Colorado / Utah (x-DEN/SLC)
Population - DEN/SLC exhibit balanced population growth, statewide (x-DEN/SLC) growing slightly older.

Employment - Growth in employment nearly doubles in SLC/DEN in most recent cycle, falls 55% statewide (excluding SLC/DEN).
-Phoenix vs. Arizona (x-PHX)
Population - PHX has nearly all of states population growth, except for a split of the growth in 65+yr/olds.
Employment - PHX job growth down over 80% in this current cycle, statewide (x-PHX) the job losses of the last recession have not been recouped.
-->Property Values...regionally at record highs (according to Census based on repeat sales of 6 million homes nationwide)...vs. Case-Shiller showing all cities (but Los Angeles) at new highs.
Pacific region vs. PDX, SEA, LA, SF residential price index...All four cities had different rates of appreciation during housing bubble #1, however based on indexing from 1991, all four show the same appreciation now.


Property Values...year over year changes.

-->Housing Creation