I'm a proud native Oregonian. I've lived in Asia, Europe, and travelled most of the world, but I choose to live in Oregon. It's that good. Oregon is also great because it is a political and social dichotomy. Ultra liberal Portland, Eugene, Bend vs ultra conservative rural Oregon. There is a little something for everybody...and I love every bit of it.
So, as I'm watching the states recent implosion...I'm heartsick. Like everywhere else, Coronavirus has found it's way into Oregon. In March, the state chose to shut down and enter into a prolonged lockdown. I disagreed but couldn't do so with great conviction, because the reliable data to prove the shutdown wasn't warranted just didn't exist. However, as reliable data has been growing...the state has chosen to keep schools closed, cancelling athletic and social clubs. alongside in person learning. And now the state has entered a second partial lockdown; shutting down restaurants, gyms, bars, and other select business'. At the most critical business time of the year, the state has taken business owners/employees ability to earn a living with no compensation offered. This has been done to slow the spread of Coronavirus and avoid an overwhelming crush of patients in the states hospitals.
Like the Governor, I too want to keep Oregonians from needlessly dying. But I'm also cognizant that the state government is there to serve the people, not dictate to them. The state is there to educate to the risk factors and respect it's citizens well informed decisions. Unilaterally taking away many Oregonians right to run small and large business', send their children to school, etc. would have to be done based on some very hard and lethal evidence. It is this evidence I want to review.
First, consider the total number of Coronavirus cases, per age group, and the associated deaths (chart below). It should be obvious that the under 50 year old population makes up the vast majority of positive cases (and actual cases are likely 5x to 10x higher due to asymptomatic &/or mild undiagnosed cases) but under 50 year olds make up so few of the Coronavirus deaths.
- Under 30yr/olds = 37% of cases, 9% of hospitalizations, & 0.2% of deaths.
- 30 to 60yr/olds = 46% of cases, 34% of hospitalizations, & 9.1% of deaths.
- 60+yr/olds = 17% of cases, 57% of hospitalizations, & 91.7% of deaths.