First, chart of the century...literally. For those engrossed in the current and engulfing repo fiasco, QE, and monetization...it is helpful to pull back and clarify what it is that is causing the existing economic and financial system to fail? It was, is, and will be a Ponzi to its last day and Ponzi's fail for lack of new suckers. In this case, those willing and able to undertake new credit (debt) that enlarges the money supply in our fractional reserve system. The chart below shows the global annual growth of the 20 to 65 year-olds versus 65+ year-olds (both excluding Africa). 20 to 65 year-olds world over utilize credit (debt) while 65+ year-olds extinguish debt (deleverage). So long as the growth of those levering up outstripped those deleveraging, the system could continue. But as you'll note, in 2008, the entire global system shuddered as accelerating growth of potential workers ceased and began decelerating...while the growth of non-workers accelerated. By about 2024, the annual growth of non-workers (deleveragers) will overtake annual growth of potential workers (debtors). Those rapidly extinguishing debt in old age will outnumber those undertaking the new debt. Those in retirement or in death offloading assets will outnumber those buying those assets. The non-technical name for this is a "shit-show" and this is why central banks, federal governments, and ultra wealthy are aligning ever tighter to save themselves.
This was never going to work...but that doesn't mean everybody has to lose. And the ever tightening circle of winners are attempting to lock in their gains at the expense of the vast majorities losses. QE is the salve for inadequate credit and money growth due to decelerating population growth among young versus accelerating population growth among elderly. The forces of elderly deflation are outstripping the inflationary forces of growth among the young.

Whether you agree, disagree, or are still pondering...the charts below show the global population of 15 to 24 year-old and 25 to 34 year-old potential childbearing females (excluding Africa) and total annual births (excluding Africa), dashed lines. Why exclude Africa? As a continent, Africa consumes just 3% of global energy, imports about the same in finished goods, and generally consume so little as to be a rounding error...but they are the bulk of population growth. However, Africa provides a very low level of emigration compared to Mexico, India, and the rest of the world. The geographic barriers from sub-Saharan Africa (where the vast majority of high fertility nations exist) and extreme levels of poverty have constrained emigration thus far.
So, when the global population growth among 15 to 24 year-old females (x-Africa, blue line) simply stalled from 1989 through 1995 and annual births declined by 20 million (black dashed lines), there may have been good reason to pay a little closer attention. When the final impetus of 15 to 24 population growth concluded in 2008 and the echo rise in births likewise concluded, even closer attention should have been warranted. Since 2008, the final piece of demographic energy came through the 25 to 34 year-old population (brown line) and peaked in 2018. Now, from a childbearing standpoint, it is all downhill indefinitely. By 2050, the 15 to 24 female population will decline by another 32 million while the 25 to 34 female population will fall by 39 million. The UN projects births (x-Africa) will slowly and steadily decline as the childbearing population is in decline. Something far more dramatic is more likely.






A quick look at the change per period of 15 to 35 year old females (x-Africa) versus the change in annual births (x-Africa). From 1950 through 1989, the childbearing female population rose by 111% and annual births by 61%...from 1989 through 2018, the childbearing female population rose by 21% but annual births fell 15%. The UN projection from 2018 through 2050 is an 8% decline in females of childbearing age while births implausibly "only" fall 15%. Magnitudes greater decline is far more realistic.


For the truly curious, I chart out the childbearing female populations and births, by region, from 1950 through 2050. Like real estate, while the global trends are clear, they vary widely by region. The first chart for each region is total 15 to 24 year-old and 25 to 34 year-old females versus total annual births. Second chart is the year over year change in both childbearing females and births. Knowledge is power.
Western Asia (Middle East)
Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Syria, Turkey, UAE, Yemen. Although presently in a decade long lull in growth among the childbearing, there is still some demographic energy yet to come. Still, UN projects no further growth in births.
Western Asia (Middle East)
Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Syria, Turkey, UAE, Yemen. Although presently in a decade long lull in growth among the childbearing, there is still some demographic energy yet to come. Still, UN projects no further growth in births.


(Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan). Rising childbearing populations and declining births in the short term, flat to slightly up through the mid century.


(Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Iran, Nepal/Bhutan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka). The most populous region of the world has rolled over and a far more significant decline in births than the UN projects is likely over the upcoming decades.


(China, Japan, S/N Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia).
- China's female childbearing population has fallen 25 million since 1989 and births down over 50% (-16 million) and yet far larger declines in those capable of childbirth are still upcoming and ongoing. Those willing to engage in childbirth seems to be falling even faster, as the aftermath of the 2016 "two-child" fiasco highlights. The female childbearing population will decline by another 50 million by 2050 and fertility rates are likely to go even lower. Unlike the UN projection below, annual births below 10 million are likely in the near term...and how much further it goes from there is the question. What will a country with 50 million unoccupied units of housing do as their population continues collapsing from the bottom-up (rhetorical question, Chinese government will be the buyer of everything eventually).


- Japan, patient zero in depopulation, has been watching their annual births collapse since 1950, down over 60% from peak births, and resultant childbearing population decline for fifty years now, down almost 40%. There really is nothing to stop or even slow the decline as this daisy-chain continues. An honest question to pose at this point is, when do we start to consider the likelihood that Japan as a state and society is in true peril of going into terminal decline or are we already passed that point?


- South Korea, like Japan...but much worse. South Korea is in population freefall with births down almost 70% since the 1960 peak and the childbearing population down almost 30% from the late 1980's peak. But the declines are just getting warmed up and the UN projection of flattish births against collapsing females of childbearing age is just silly. An unbelievable but more realistic scenario will put births down half again from here over the next decade and children in South Korea will be nearing endangered species status?!?


(Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam). Annual births peaked here in 1985 and have flatlined for three decades, but now the flatline is coming through the childbearing population and resultant declining births are projected...the only question will be how large the declines will be?

S.E. Asia year over year, below. Why this time is different isn't hard to see as the demographic momentum flips from growth to decline.

Like South and South East Asia, Central America's births have long been flat...so long that now the childbearing population is likewise flat. How steep the resultant decline in births will be is the trillion dollar question.


South America's population is more mature and the declines are already well underway.


(Europe minus East Europe). Births peaked five and half decades ago and have fallen by 1/3 since. The childbearing population peaked in the mid '80's and has fallen by a quarter. There is nothing but more of the same in the future.
Western Europe year over year, below. Despite all the immigration, really no demographic light out there. Persistent declines in the childbearing population and likely even greater declining births than projected by the UN below.
East Europe
(Belarus, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine). The impact of the Soviet Union break-up is still pre-eminent in this part of the world but the in the aftermath of the GFC coupled with a significant decline in the childbearing, a similar decline in births is likely beyond the rather minor decline projected by the UN.
The year over year view of Eastern Europe, below. The major impact of the declining childbearing population through the next decade is evident.


(Belarus, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine). The impact of the Soviet Union break-up is still pre-eminent in this part of the world but the in the aftermath of the GFC coupled with a significant decline in the childbearing, a similar decline in births is likely beyond the rather minor decline projected by the UN.


The combined Canadian, Australian, New Zealand childbearing and births are among the more demographically positive. Some further growth is likely despite negative fertility rates, based on growing childbearing populations thanks to ongoing immigration.

Year over year, below. The days of heady growth are gone, but some demographic growth likely remains.

As for the US, the days of a growing childbearing population are done and thanks to ongoing immigration, a flat childbearing population is likely to persist. However, with ongoing declining fertility rates, declining births are far more likely than the strange UN projection of an imminent birth burst. This is the same burst that the Census and UN have been projecting since 2008 while births continue moving in exactly the opposite direction. My best guess for births is the continued path of decline, in dashed yellow below.



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ReplyDeleteWhat do you make of the education sector and its future?
ReplyDeleteChris, you claim to be knowledgeable, but if you don't allow discussion and debate in your bare bone comments section, you are no different than those who you criticize. I'm done here. I'm serious, I can get info from many different places. I'm not going to wish you well...you are just as compromised as the rest. Here's a prediction of my own: this blog will decline and is all but finished in a few years.
ReplyDeleteNo, this blog is good, although repetitive at times. I think it will be around for a long time to come. It is the go-to place for long term demographic data for me.
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteOnce again, you are an optimist with regards to future demographics. Consider:
https://twitter.com/CarlMinzner/status/1201289127678726144
If this is true, China is undergoing serious demographic decline. Russia has recently dropped from 1.78 in 2015 to below 1.5 for 2019.
Hey,
ReplyDeleteI noticed your Article. I just loved it.
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