Sunday, October 8, 2017

Tale of Two America's - South

-->Population Change, by age segment 2010-->2016
E. South Central...under 65yr/old population <-10k>, 65+yr/old population +0.5m
W. South Central...under 65yr/old population +2m, 65+yr/old population +1m
S. Atlantic...under 65yr/old population +1.8m, 65+yr/old population +2.1m
Under 65yr/old vs. Over 65yr/old Population Growth
Charts below show the change in over vs. under 65yr/old population plus total change, by state from 2010-->2016.  W. Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, and Kentucky are among the bottom 20 with declining under 65yr/old populations vs. fast growing 65+yr/old populations. 

Mid 10...on average, states below added 0.4 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Next 10 (ok, 11)...on average, states below added 0.8 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.

Top 10 (ok, 9)...on average, states below added 1.8 under 65yr/olds per added over 65yr/old.
Population Growth Breakdown...by state.
E South Central
W. South Central
S. Atlantic

-->Employment Growth...by period, by state

Washington DC is the only "state" which is accelerating in job growth...and also has the highest under 65 to over 65yr/old population growth ratio (adding 7 under 65yr/olds for every 65+yr/old).

-->Population vs. Employment...broken down by primary city(s) vs. remainder of state.

-Texas (x-HOU, DAL, SAN, AUS) vs. Dallas/Ft. Worth, Houston, San Antonio, Austin
Population - Some of the most balanced population growth across age groups and urban vs. rural that I've seen nationally.

Employment - UPDATED - Added Austin to the city total, and now Texas looks like most other states with high job growth among major cities and little elsewhere.  These cities account for less than half the states population but over 75% of the job growth in the most recent period.
Houston, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Austin, and San Antonio (represented by Tarrant, Brexar, Dallas, Travis, and Harris Counties).

-Tennessee (x-NSH) vs. Nashville
Population - Nashville has positive under 65yr/old population growth in excess of 65+ growth...the rest of Tennessee is growing old in short order.
Employment - Jobs growth is as lopsided as one would expect after seeing the demographic breakdown above...Nashville jobs growth rising to a new peak in this cycle, job growth among the rest of the state essentially stalled.
-Georgia (x-ATL) vs. Atlanta
Population - ATL has balanced population growth while Georgia (x-ATL) is growing older quickly with the bulk of growth among 65+ population.
Employment - ATL's job growth has decelerated over 50% during the current cycle, statewide (x-ATL) job growth has decelerated almost 90%.
-North Carolina (x-CHA/RAL) vs. Charlotte/Raleigh
Population - Balanced pop. growth in Charlotte/Raleigh, statewide (x-CHA/RAL) nearing depopulation of under 65yr/old population vs. surging 65+yr/olds.Employment - 25% deceleration in job growth among CHA/RAL, 100% deceleration statewide (x-CHA/RAL).
-->Property Values...regionally at record highs (according to Census based on repeat sales of 6 million homes nationwide)...vs. Case-Shiller showing multiple cities (with better population and jobs growth than the region as a whole) nowhere near previous highs.

Property value changes...year over year.


-->Housing Creation