Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Tale of Two America's - Northeast

-->Population change by age segment, 2010-->2016
New England...under 65yr/old population <-0.1m>, 65+yr/old population +0.4m
Mid Atlantic...under 65yr/old population <-0.3m>, 65+yr/old population +0.9m
Under 65yr/old vs. Over 65yr/old Population Growth
Charts below show the change in over vs. under 65yr/old population plus total change, by state from 2010-->2016.  All Northeast states (except Massachusetts) are in the bottom 20 nationally with declining under 65yr/old populations against fast growing 65+yr/olds.

Bottom 10...on average, these states are losing 0.9 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.

Next 10 worst...on average, these states are losing 0.3 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Population Growth Breakdown...by state from '10-->'16.
-->Employment Growth...by period, by state
Change in employees per state from peak to peak per economic cycle.
-->Population vs. Employment...broken down by primary city(s) vs. remainder of state.

-New York City vs. New York State (x-NYC)
Population - NYC shows pop. growth across the board, NY (x-NYC) under 65yr/old population is depopulating vs. a surging 65+yr/old population.

Employment - Massive acceleration in job growth in NYC vs. low but surprisingly stable job growth statewide (x-NYC).
-Boston vs. Massachusetts (x-Boston)
Population - Boston has positive and balanced population growth, Massachusetts (x-BOS) is nearing depopulation among under 65 population and surging 65+.

Employment - Huge acceleration in Boston's job growth during this cycle, 30% deceleration among the remainder of the state. 

-Philadelphia/Pittsburgh vs. Pennsylvania (x-PHI/PIT)
Population - Semblance of balance in population growth in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh, remainder of the state showing strong depopulation under 65 and surging 65+ population. 
Employment - Accelerating job growth in PHI/PIT, 85% deceleration for the remainder of the state.
-Portland ME vs. Maine (x-Portland)
Population - Portland's population growth is less bad than the terrible situation across the rest of Maine (x-Portland).

Employment - Job growth during this cycle has decelerated by about 50% in Portland, while there is nothing but job declines across the remainder of Maine (x-Portland).
-->Property Values...at record highs (according to Census based on repeat sales of 6 million homes nationwide)...vs. Case-Shiller showing Boston at new highs but NYC still below previous highs.  Strange contradiction of the Mid-Atlantic region vs. NYC, since NYC represents the best population dynamics and job growth.

Property Values...year over year change
-->Housing Creation