Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Tale of Two America's - Midwest

-->Population change by age segment, 2010-->2016
Eastern Midwest...under 65yr/old population <-0.7m>, over 65yr/old population +1.1mWestern Midwest...under 65yr/old population +0.2m, 65+yr/old population +0.5m
Under 65yr/old vs. Over 65yr/old Population Growth
Charts below show the change in over vs. under 65yr/old population plus total change, by state from 2010-->2016.  Bottom 20 states have declining under 65yr/old populations vs. fast growing 65+yr/old populations.

Bottom 10...On average, these states are losing 0.9 under 65yr/olds per 65+yr/old added.
Next 10...on average, these states are losing 0.3 under 65yr/olds per added 65+yr/old.
Of Midwestern states, only Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and N & S Dakota have growing under 65yr/old populations.

Population growth breakdown...by state from '10-->'16.
E. Midwest

W. Midwest by state.

-->Employment Growth...by period, by state
Change in employees per E Midwest state from peak to peak.
Change in Western Midwest employees per state.
-->Population vs. Employment...broken down by primary city vs. remainder of state.
-Chicago vs. Illinois (x-Chicago)
Population - Chicago is bad, Illinois (x-Chicago) is worse.

Employment - Chicago has decelerating employment growth, Illinois (x-CHI) has large and growing employment declines. 

-Indianapolis vs. Indiana (x-Indianapolis)
Population - Indianapolis has balanced pop. growth, Indiana (x-Indianapolis) has depopulation among under 65yr/olds vs. a surging 65+ population.
Employment - A 30% jobs growth deceleration in Indianapolis, a 95% deceleration for the remainder of the state.
-Minneapolis vs. Minnesota (x-Minneapolis)
Population - Pop. growth balanced in Minneapolis...minimal population growth of Minnesota's (x-MIN) under 65 population, surging 65+yr/old population.

Employment - 50% deceleration of job creation in Minneapolis, 80% deceleration for the remainder of the state.
-Des Moines vs. Iowa (x-Des Moines)
Population - Des Moines good, Iowa (x-Des Moines) bad.
Employment - Des Moines job growth decelerating but stable, rest of states job growth has decelerated -85%.

-Columbus vs. Ohio (x-Columbus)
Population - The pattern is the same, Columbus balanced population growth vs. Ohio (x-COL) surging depopulation among the under 65yr/olds and ramping over 65yr/olds.
Employment - Jobs growth decelerating nearly 20% in Columbus, outright "jobless-maggedon" with collapses in employment across the remainder of the state.
-->Property Values...regionally at record highs (according to Census based on repeat sales of 6 million homes nationwide)...vs. Case-Shiller showing multiple cities (with better population and jobs growth than the region as a whole) nowhere near previous highs.


Property values...year over year changes.
-->Housing creation