The core US population growth has been slowing since '00 and as of this year (drum roll please) that growth is ending. To be clear, this wasn't "supposed" to happen. Not according to the Census or all those planning on perpetual growth. But as the chart below highlights (yoy change on a monthly basis), for the first time since WWII (and perhaps in US history) the core US population has ceased growing...and is likely to begin declining in the coming months and years. FYI - The spikes of '90, '00, '10, and more since are due to Census adjustments, not sudden population changes. Further downgrades should be expected as Census estimates for growth remain overly optimistic.
A combination of factors are driving this cessation of core growth including decades of negative birth rates (even among the recent immigrants), the graduation of the boomers to the 65+ population, and little to no net illegal immigration since '08 (now combined with political and enforcement factors further turning net immigration to significant levels of net emigration). This all adds up to a fast decelerating basis for US consumption growth...and out the window with it, the notion that superior immigration driven US demographics will save America.
Yes, the total US population is still expected to grow this year by 2.2 million, at a total level more in-line with that seen in the 1980's (when the US population was 2/3rds it's current size). However, even that 2.2 million number is likely to be significantly downgraded due to the factors above...perhaps downgraded by as much as 50%...such is the impact of net negative illegal immigration?!?
And as for GDP, it is now simply a reflection of new federal debt. The chart below shows annual GDP growth minus the annual growth in federal debt...and since '08, there is no growth but the growth in un-repayable federal spending...and it's going to get much worse. Full details HERE.
And for those who struggle to understand the impact of the core population, the chart below highlights the substitution of federal debt since the core growth began decelerating. And what level of federal debt creation (and CB asset purchasing) will need happen as the core ceases growing or outright declining? Well, I guess we're all about to find out how you make fewer people consume more stuff (or at least how you make the numbers appear so) and simultaneously avoid asset bubbles from imploding.