- Service (Wholesale/Retail Trade, Transport & Warehousing, Utilities, Information, Finance, Real Estate, Professional & Business Services, Education & Healthcare, Leisure & Hospitality, Accommodation & Food Services)
- Government (Federal, State, Local)
- Goods Producing (Construction, Manufacturing, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Oil / Gas extraction, Mining...plus support services for these activities)
First, a peek at government vs. goods producing jobs with federal debt as the kicker. The '00 and '06 goods producing job waterfalls were offset by huge increases in federal debt. But interestingly, even government jobs have been decelerating over these same recent periods.
Next, the linkage of US goods producing jobs and the Federal Funds rate (chart below) is no accident. Each period of hiking culminated in a goods producing jobs down turn (and general economic recession). Presently, the US is still millions of goods producing jobs short of the '06 peak and nearly 5 million below the '00 peak...but the Fed rate hikes portend that another downturn is likely coming sooner than later.