Sunday, February 5, 2017

Energy Consumption vs. Core Populations - Trending Down Together

Charts are pretty self explanatory.  Total energy consumption of nations / groupings of nations vs. their core (25-54yr/old) employed populations and total core (25-54yr/old) populations.  BTW- I think the change in energy consumption is a pretty good tell for actual economic activity and growth.

Below, total US energy consumption (quadrillion BTU's) vs. core employees.  Correlation?  Causation?  Anyway, just is what it is.

Below, same as above but added core population through 2025 (UN assumes, perhaps wrongly, continued levels of immigration to achieve that slight population growth).

Below, core employees vs. total energy consumption.
Below, same as the above, but with core population through 2030, there will be fewer in the core population than are total core employees now.  For a highly levered economy, disaster.

EU -
I have more difficulty finding employee data on the 25-54yr/old population vs. the energy data I can gather.
For reference, below is the Italian core employment vs. total Italian energy consumption, as an example of what much of the EU looks like.
You are welcome to draw your own conclusions what the data below portends for China.  Core population (now declining) vs. total Chinese energy consumption.
Taking the above on an annual change basis (chart below)...annual change in core population vs. annual change in total energy consumption.  Couple points should be evident, China's massive growth in energy from 2000 onward was entirely against their population trends (or simply a massive credit fueled misallocation).