We're going to review population growth sources from two separate perspectives...by age (growing young populations vs. old living far longer than preceding generations) and by nation types (rich, middle, and poor). From these two sources, it should be clear why our present economic path is faulty and a "course correction" is necessary and likely imminent. All population data is from the OECD.stat and the US Census.
The chart below details where the growth is taking place...what should be obvious is that the wave of post WWII growth and slowing growth since was not a US phenomenon but a very global occurrence.
- Total population growth peaked in 1988 @ +93m/yr...now +80m/yr, down 14% from peak
- 0-24yr/old growth peaked in 1968 @ +47m/yr...now +8.6m/yr, down 82% from peak
- 25-44yr/old growth peaked in 1989 @ +40m/yr...now
+22.5m/yr, down 44% from peak
- 45-54yr/old growth peaked in 1999 @ +23m/yr...now +14m/yr, down 36% from peak
- 55-74yrs/old growth will peak in 2020 @ +35m/yr...now +28m/yr
- 75+yrs/old growth will peak in 2041 @ +18m/yr...now +6m/yr
- OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) represents the 34 most developed, wealthy nations
- 1.3 billion people (17%) @ present
- OECD members
- BRIICS 6 Developing nations
- 3.4 billion (45%) @ present
- Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, S. Africa
- RoW (rest of world)...all remaining nations
- 2.8 billion (37%) @ present
If adjusted for relative incomes multiplied by population growth, the chart below represents the importance of the OECD and BRIICS vs. the relative weakness of the RoW. The chart holds incomes constant for OECD @ $40k/yr average, BRIICS @ $15k/yr, and the RoW @ $8k/yr.
- Total population growth peaked in 1992 @ +3.5m/yr...perpetual optimists at the Census estimate the growth will "hockey stick" to +3m/yr in 2016 (from +2m as recently as 2014)
- 0-24yr/old growth peaked in 1961 @ +2.1m/yr...now zero, down 100% from peak
- 25-44yr/old growth peaked in 1982 @ +2.2m/yr...now 1m/yr, down 55% from peak
- 45-54yr/old growth peaked in 1987 @ +1.6m/yr...now -45k/yr, down 105% from peak
- 55-74yrs/old growth will peak in 2012 @ +2m/yr...now +1.5m/yr, down 33% from peak
- 75+yrs/old growth will peak in 2030 @ +1.2m/yr...now +600k/yr
- Total population growth peaked in 1969 @ +22m/yr...now +7m/yr in 2016, down 68% from peak
- 0-24yr/old growth peaked in 1969 @ +14m/yr...now -8m/yr, down 157% from peak
- 25-44yr/old growth peaked in 1993 @ +13m/yr...now -600k/yr, down 105% from peak
- 45-54yr/old growth peaked in 2013 @ +8.4m/yr...now
+5.6m/yr, down 33% from peak
- 55-74yrs/old growth will peak in 2020 @ +11m/yr...now +8m/yr
- 75+yrs/old growth will peak in 2041 @ +5.8m/yr...now +1.2m/yr
And what do nations do as economic activity from decelerating or declining populations occur??? The chart below repeated in developed nations world over...crank up credit (via low interest rates in advanced nations...by banking decree in China).
To recap, as population growth slowed and moved from rich to poor, from young to old (living longer)...central bankers made a monumentally stupid decision. Central bankers followed Keynes advice from a different time and reality...CB'ers lowered interest rates to incent greater use of credit to maintain unnaturally high levels of demand and consumption. Of course, if you look at the charts above, you would have always known more debt to be serviced by little to no growth was a fools errand.
Finally, the chart below highlights the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts since 1981, coinciding with the slowing of the 25-54yr/old growth of the US population. The chart highlights the rate cuts, the soaring debt incurred vs. the declining full time job creation during each cycle. If this chart is correct, NIRP will not create jobs but will certainly support massive new debt creation...