Friday, January 8, 2016
Populations of Young Are Declining Worldwide (Except Africa)...Masked by Old Living Far Longer (Except Africa)
The chart below again highlights the relative dearth of growth in the population of the 0-5 year olds (aka, babies/toddlers).
Unfortunately, I have more bad news. Population growth of the young stopped long ago in China, Brazil, and even India now. The only source offsetting these strong negative birthrates is the massive baby boom on the poorest continent...Africa. Africa's birthrates in nations like Nigeria, Uganda, etc. are running at 7 children per female of child bearing age. This is simply sad and a catastrophe both on a human level and from an economic standpoint. So, the net/net is that population of young is falling significantly, pretty much on 5 of the 6 inhabited continents of the world.
What I'm showing is that a system that can only function based on growth has lost the most critical growth of all...population. While the population may continue to grow older (see the chart below), it is not truly growing larger when viewed through the footprint of the youngest among us.
For those who think the US is immune to these troubles...probably should see what the US Census has to say about that based on their updated 2012 and 2014 projections, here.
The chart below actually shocked me when I made it...in 1950 there were 10 babes (0-5) in the world for every "very old" person (75+ years old). Amazingly, the estimations show by 2050 there will be as many 75+ year olds in the world as babes. "We're going to need a bigger boat" to handle what's coming our way.
***All data for this article is from the OECD which compiles both historical data and makes future estimates. This data is among the most reliable of all economic data.