Friday, January 15, 2016

Federal Reserve Responsible for Oil Glut...China Responsible for Weakening Oil Demand

The Fed's Cheap Money Was Responsible for the Current Oil Glut

The chart below highlights since 2005, US production has risen by 6.6mbpd compared to OPEC's 1.6mbpd increase.  However, US consumption has fallen 1.5mbpd while OPEC nations are utilizing 2.8mbpd more oil than 2005.  So, net net, the US needs 8.1mbpd less oil while OPEC is exporting 1.2mbpd less than 2005.  So who's responsible for the collapse in oil prices???

US oil production bottomed in 2005 at 8 mbpd after falling since the early 1970's.  Since 2005, US production rose 80% while OPEC rose 5%. 

Meanwhile, US consumption of oil fell 7% while OPEC consumption rose 41%

And finally, the correlation of the US (and Canadian) shale miracle to the Fed's zero interest rate policy allowed a highly levered, marginally profitable enterprise to record high prices.  However, once the combination of the US / Canadian oil glut and diminishing Chinese demand came together, prices tumbled and the shale miracle was exposed for what it was...just another Fed bubble and bust.  90% of global new supply had come from the US and Canada while OPEC had decreased net exports. 

And the bankruptcy's will flow and all those billions and perhaps trillions of dollars loaned at ZIRP are set to cease performing.  Rather than subprime, it will be energy drillers, producers, etc. going bust that will be the next financial blowup rocking the global economy.

50% of all '05-'15 Growth in Oil Consumption Was China

It was China that saved the world from global depression in '08-'09 til now by quadrupling their credit / debt ($7 T to $28 T...this was 40% of all global credit over this period compared to the paltry 10% created by US over same time...almost entirely as Federal debt). China built 50-100 million excess apartments, ghost cities, 50% of all new global retail sq/ft, represented 55% of all global oil consumption growth (likewise for copper, steel, etc. etc).

Massive public works (3 Gorges dam, infrastructure galore...all for a population whose 0-64yr old population is now falling and will fall for decades).

This was an entirely unrepeatable, one off. Are there any more one offs or rabbits to be pulled from the hat??? No one knows the future but there are no visible sources for new credit but governments printing and spending...

And China's demographics, debt, and overcapacity suggest an economic collapse is very likely...maybe Janet will get her chance to quadruple US debt to save the world over the next 7 years.

The Fed and China, both created unsustainable trends which are now in self reinforcing freefall. 

***All energy data via EIA, demographic data via OECD.