- Rubber < -81%>
- Iron Ore < -75%>
- Uranium < -75%>
- Zinc < -64%>
- Fertilizers < -65%>
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Commodity Prices Collapse...Population Growth Decelerating...Disorder Becoming the New Norm
Global Population growth is decelerating and will continue decelerating indefinitely...Global credit, debt, and leverage are moving to the inverse as the substitute for the missing growth (thanks to central banks decades of interest rate cuts).
The fall in commodity prices is breath taking... Below are those commodities which broke down in '11 and have only kept falling...
And then there's these late '12 peakers...
65% decline since '08...50% decline
The dollar bottoms in '11...moves in '14
Those that fell with the dollar in '14
76% decline from '08---73% from '14
85% decline since '08---70% from '14
The Federal Reserves policies incented massive overinvestment in everything, including commodities production. US and global debt has run it's course but the depression to clean out all the massive overcapacity will likely be one for the ages.
And below the last vestiges of "recovery" and "normalcy"...but the head and shoulders breaking down now looks a bit ominous for those who believe in markets.
All this seems to be indicating the world economy is slowing rapidly and the deflationary, depressionary, depopulating impulses are set to overwhelm central bankers. Central banks can make money cheaper but that can't make more people. Some very serious stuff is now upon the world and far worse is almost sure before we can ultimately hope to turn a corner in some sort of reset. I really don't know of anywhere to sit this one out or how to make your millions of the trouble to come. I think it's likely a prudent goal to simply survive it...and then focus on how to thrive on the way out and afterward.