As far as global consumption (aka, growth), I see three basic sources of growth and all three are turning bad - credit growth, population growth, wage growth.
- Population growth (quantity and quality) is decelerating from richer to poorer nations...all net young growth among poor nations vs. growth of old in wealthier nations.
- Credit growth is the only substitute...but it too is problematic as private sources are flat lining while government credit growth is the becoming the global last line of "growth".
- Wage growth likewise is decelerating...developed to developing, nation by nation. However, this is pretty well known among developed nations...and how China unsustainably achieved wage growth is precisely why it won't continue there or in most other developing nations.
Wage growth has ceased in developed economies for a hundred reasons (innovation, automation, outsourcing, technology, strong currencies, etc. etc.) but I can see wage growth is in big trouble for developing nations. To show this, let's look at China.
China's wage and GDP growth was premised on cheap labor and a dollar peg plus two engines which are nearly entirely flamed out...population growth and housing fueled credit growth (chart below). Unfortunately, China's exports / imports are tanking due to slowing global economic activity, China's core population as of 2016 is outright shrinking and will continue to shrink for decades, and China's housing driven bubble has popped.