Thursday, November 12, 2015

Can You Spot The Interest Rate Cycle That's Different? The Fed Can't!!!

As the Federal Reserve discusses and prepares the nation for a potential December interest rate hike, seems appropriate to compare the "success" of the latest cycle with previous interest rate cycles.
  • Federal debt incurred per net full time job growth per interest rate cycle (below).

  • The percentage of net new full time job growth per population growth (below).

  • Interest rate cycles compared with average interest rates over the cycle, full time job growth, and federal debt incurred per cycle.

  • Duration of interest rates at the minimum rate per cycle prior to initiating rate hikes.
  • Below, federal debt growth per interest rate cycle vs. full time job and population growth per cycle.

Apparently, this is what passes for "success" in the Fed's eyes in the new normal!?!