Pageviews past week

Monday, August 17, 2015

Young vs. Debt...Do The Young Have Any Chance?

Most seem to assume global population increases will perpetually mean rising consumer bases and an ever greater strain on limited resources resulting in perpetually greater demand.  But a quick check of China, Japan, Italy (representing the EU), and US show this to be a very bad assumption.


To show the impacts of slowing birth rates globally...the charts below track the young (0-14yr/old) population relative to debt for the respective nations.
 
The first chart shows that engine of global growth...China.  But a 32% decline in the young population from the '75 peak or 116m fewer young in China today than in 1975 indicates the entire population of China will ultimately decline by the same 30%'ish figure.  However, those hugely smaller numbers will be responsible for hugely larger debt service with a declining consumer and tax base for an already overbuilt, highly leveraged nationwide overcapacity.  Hmmm...

And of course Japan...funny, looks an awful lot like China.

And a good proxy for the EU, Italy generally exhibits the same population decreases and rising debt.

And finally, America.  As the chart below shows, the US young population has just remained positive with an annual increase of 0.1% (one tenth of one percent) from the previous 1966 peak.  The rising American young population is entirely due to immigration (legal and illegal) as US birth rates are solidly negative since 2009.  However, the US has loaded massive debt increases of 5,500% on this minutely increasing population.

And a quick review of global fertility rates shows global population growth continues to slow (global annual increases peaked in 1991 at 90million and the growth rate falling since)...and the vast majority of population gains are coming in India and 3rd world nations where (from a global growth standpoint)...they are able to add very little global net demand to offset the declining advanced nation consumers.  Add to this the bulk of all advanced nation population increases are (net) 55+yrs/old (aka, retiring and curtailing spending and simultaneously increasing loads on social safety nets). 

Engines of growth flaming out (below)...

And advanced nations continue the negative birth rate trends that began in the 1970's.

I show this data to explain why central bank actions are entirely harmful and at best misguided or at worst treasonous to the nations which they supposedly represent.  Attempting to bridge a permanently flattening and, in many cases, declining consumption base with debt and leverage is impossible to succeed.  All this adds up to a best case scenario of softening global demand or (more likely) the worst case scenario, at least economically, of collapsing demand being met with further declines in birth rates.  A long term, spiraling, depopulating depression.


The leaders of nations, central banks, and finance must be removed from power (call it an "election" or "innovation" or "revolutionary" change...call it whatever) and a global bankruptcy and restart with the long term good of the citizens of the world undertaken.  Like any change process, this will hurt and involve personal and national sacrifice but so long as majority share the long-term vision of a brighter future...it is possible but every day we pause, the hole they dig for us gets deeper.

9 comments:

  1. But how do you even start to do anything about it? The debt money system has been operating since 1694 when the Bank of England was founded and both income tax and 'democracy' were instituted at the same time. Under a monarchial system it was very
    hard to to recover debts incurred by a king once he died.The second clause of the Magna Carta provided specific protection for the spouse and children from the greedy money
    lenders.
    With representative democracy the governments incurred debts that were then passed
    on' legitimately' to the children and grandchildren of the taxpayers of the time. That is
    why in England they had the ' Glorious Revolution' because the bankers knew that
    James II would not agree to the establishment of a central bank and they financed
    William of Orange to usurp the legitimate monarch.
    They knew Tsar Nicholas of Russia would not agree to set up a central bank, that is why
    he had to be assassinated and the monarchy abolished in the Bolshevik revolution.In
    the Russian Japanese war of 1904 , the banker Jacob Schiff financed the Japanese with
    the deliberate intention of destabilizing Russia to facilitate the revolution and I think that was the first war in modern times where a European power was defeated by an Asian
    power. Apparently, Jacob Schiff is regarded as some kind of saint in Japan.
    Look at what happened to Hitler when he tried to cut loose from the banks and establish
    his own currency based on national production.
    Sadam Hussein was deposed when he indicated that he wanted to exchange Euros for
    his oil instead of dollars. When Gaddafi hinted that he would start a new currency based on gold, all of a sudden from being America's best friend he became enemy No. I. The
    bankers use the military power of the USA to destroy anyone who dares challenge the
    inquitous and usurious central banking system.

    ReplyDelete
  2. But how do you even start to do anything about it? How? Easy! Stop using fiat paper currency. Since tax is demanded in fiat, stop taxable activities. This will cause the whole criminal Ponzi to crash. Use real physical precious metal money instead of fiat paper currency.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Crashing the system seems convenient on paper, but in the real world I would think many would suffer greatly. Some would die all would be put back into a surreal situation, where nothing can be resolved satisfactorily. With no way forward and a present fraught with dangers, people would have to find a way to protect themselves from others who are willing to take what they need at gun point.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "people would have to find a way to protect themselves from others who are willing to take what they need at gun point."

      & there aren't a lot of options that don't require having your own gun...

      Delete
    2. Rob - my clarion call to action is to avoid the outcome you describe (I think that's the base case if we continue and do nothing). However, there is enough food, enough land, enough clothing, enough fuel, etc. to get the world through (not in the style the West is accustomed to but still good) but we need to find a process to clean the books of debt and the associated obligations (every debt is somebody else's asset). We just have to do it in a way that doesn't create panic or fear and every man for him/herself thinking or we will have the world you describe.

      If we do nothing,

      Delete
  4. Interesting that high populations of young people associate with third world economic status. Relatively speaking, what does this say about the future of the USA?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Before the welfare state, urbanisation and the invention of contraception, big families were the norm in all countries. Up until the second world war the USA and Europe were about 70% rural. Children were extra hands to help around the farm and your pension, in that they were expected to look after you when you got too old to work.
    With the introduction of Government social security, people were fed the false idea that the government would look after you in your old age. People began to have fewer children and increased urbanisation made large families impractible.
    The Boomer generation have had their money confiscated from them by the Governmet. You had no choice in the matter. That money went to pay for the pensions of the previous two generations that retired before them .
    Now that the boomers are coming up for retirement there is no money there. As they had few children because they assumed they would be looked after, the next generations have fewer people and cannot support the pension and social security liabilities. They also don't have children at home to look after them.
    The Baby Boomers face old age with no pension and no family.
    That is why the governments are pushing for the legalisation of euthnasia. The Muslim and Hindus with their big families and clan system will be in a far better position to cope with the economic crisis to come than the indigenous Europeans and American whose families and communities have been deliberately destroyed as planned by the Franfurt School communists.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Islam then is one deadly against usury i.e. Interest based paper currency system and this explains the onslaught Muslim societies are facing now a days.
    As foretold bymessenger of Allah this is going to bring a catastrophe to humankind unparalleled in history likely to be doomsday.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yes, Usury is a crime but maybe more than that is the capture of the means of exchange by the few that can increase it at will and purchase with it the wealth of nations and all natural assets. Then charge a tithe for living so that there is no longer any free person that is not yoked. nor anywhere to breath air, drink water or use the energy of the sun and all it's freely created largesse unless under that yoke and subject to a charge according to the commandment of 'User Pays' under this new abomination of Gods.

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.