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Wednesday, August 5, 2015

The Imminent Demographic Collapse Through the Lens of the OECD Nations

If one wanted reasons to be bullish and think tomorrow, next week, next year, next decade will be like today or the last 50 years...take a look at the population chart of the OECD below.  Looks like constant, consistent growth of population and soon to be consumers.

However, if one were among the .01% that were curious to know much of anything, the below chart would indicate that the population growth is not exactly evenly distributed. 

Or simply put...the below chart shows the absolute cliff where population growth not only slows but goes solidly negative across a 40+ yr segment of the population.

And please keep in mind that peak earning and spending occurs in one's 40's and early 50's...and by 65yrs/old earnings slow precipitously and spending typically falls to 3/5ths pre-retirement levels.  When an entire globes economy is based on population growth among fixed income 55+yr/olds...we're fucked if we won't change our ways.


EXTRA CREDIT - For those who believe this doesn't matter because the rest of the globe will continue to grow infinitely...


4 comments:

  1. Popn growth is relevant... but it is the number of people moving into middle class consumption that drives economies not popn growth alone... eg. BRICs (despite declining fertility rates) vs Africa... also declining fertility rates from an initial high level does not imply declining population necessarily.

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  2. Very good comment.

    This whole blog seems to be like a rant from somebody that somebody got hurt by the "capitalistic ways" and is now trying to tell us the world is coming to an end to justify and make himself feel better.

    These chart and analyses are mostly taken out of context and have very little intrinsic value.

    Population collapse? Have you heard of a term called "immigration" Hambone?

    As the above poster very well puts it, it does not matter much what the overall population does, what matters is how many of them belong to the group that can buy stuff and drive economic growth both home and abroad. Sure, families from India to Turkey to China are rapidly decreasing in numbers of children they bring into this world but on the other hand they have easier access to education, they earn more and thus can afford to put their kids through good schools and eventually this snowballs into a faster and faster advancement of the poor into the ranks of the middle and upper echelons of consumers.

    Sure, there are going to be hurdles, but eventually we get there and probably by 2050 the world economy will be at least triple in size to what it is today, in real growth terms.

    So all this doom and gloom seems to me like pure science fiction.

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    Replies
    1. Suggest you read the following...hopefully the info provided by the OECD which I've charted out will be more informative.

      http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/08/population-growth-will-never-be-fix-to.html

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    2. or perhaps read this...

      http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/08/slowing-engines-of-growth-examinedor.html

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