The charts below are of the most populous nations on earth. These are the top 10 nations + EU, Mexico, and Canada equaling 4.556 Billion. The ROW (rest of world) represents 2.7 billion. However, the nations below likely enjoy 80%+ of all global consumption...or in other words, if they have a cold, the rest of the world is very sick with nowhere to ship their exports and no path to middle class Western consumption.
This is a reference post as time and again I'm told engines of growth await in India, Indonesia, Africa, etc. etc. Peruse the charts below to see the trends for yourself. The trend of population cores going negative or ceasing to grow has been followed by economic slowdown and massive credit / debt increases. The pattern is clear for Japan, EU, US, and China...and looks set to continue for Brazil and eventually India, etc.
#1 CHINA = 1.36 billion...declining young and core populations and declining total population starting 2030'ish. Nearly all population increases from here 'til 2030 are in the 65+ low consumption, fixed to no wage, set.
And below, debt in lieu of a growing core population. With the credit bubble burst, QE can't be far off in China?
Again, debt substituted for declining core growth.
- #7 Pakistan 199m...see India
- #8 Nigeria 182m...young and growing in all segments...no ez data but a +5 million increase annually...fast approaching China's declining overall growth.
- #9 Bangladesh 169m...see India
#10 RUSSIA = 142 m...Total and young population trending up while the core is at its peak decline before beginning some recovery.
Cumulatively with OECD, China, Brazil, and Russia (blue line below) outright declines of the young and core populations are imminent while the ROW population growth continues slowing. Couple this with declining credit and significant consumption declines are here to stay.
Given the cumulative collapse of high consumer nations young and core population growth and slight slowdown of low consumer nations population gains (below)...the current 10yr period we enter represents about an est. 45% decline in new consumption from the previous 10yr period. By the time we get to '25-'34 net new est. consumption drops by 90%+ due to significant declines among high consumer populations not adequately offset by low consumer growth.
However, this really underestimates the rate of consumption slowdown due to the lack of population growth...as the marginal population growth sparks so much activity. It requires new infrastructure (highways, water & electricity grid buildups, hospitals)...it requires new homes and all the stuff to fill them...etc. etc. Without the high consumer population growth, overall activity tends to fall significantly more than anticipated and the knock on effects to low consumer nations (intent on moving to high consumption via exports to high consumption nations) crashes and burns.
This is a long post to simply say the world is finite and population growth is coming to an end...and economic systems based on perpetual growth of population layered with ever more debt are not coping well with the new normal.
***All population data is from OECD and OECD estimates (btw- I believe the OECD significantly overestimates future population growth as it assumes positive economics that is unlikely to occur driving birth rates. This above really represents a best case scenario?!?)...