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Thursday, August 20, 2015

Population Growth Will Never Be the Fix To What Ails The World

"High consumer nations*" represent about 3 billion of earths 7 billion total population.  However these 3 billion persons represent about 75% of global consumption despite representing only 2/5's of earths population.  They have higher incomes, savings, and ready access to credit relative to those nations of the developing world.  From this perspective, it takes about four "low consumer nation" new persons to equal every one "high consumer nation" population gain.


*High consumer nations consist of all 34 OECD members (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, USA) + China, Russia, and Brazil.

The reason this differentiation of high and low consumer nations is important is that growth rates are significantly different.  In the current decade from 2015 through 2024, global population among the 0-64yr old population will grow an estimated 545 million.  This growth represents about a 144 million decrease from the previous decades growth but equally important is the high consumer nation growth goes to zero from nearly a +110 million previously (see chart below).

Given the complete collapse of high consumer population growth and slight slowdown of low consumer nation population gains...the current 10yr period we enter represents about a 45% decline in new consumption.  By the time we get to '25-'34 net new consumption drops by 90%+ due to significant declines among high consumer populations not adequately offset by low consumer growth.


I show this not to spread doom or gloom but to make clear the policies of growth and encouragement of more debt via low interest rates are clearly the wrong path.  We simply will not have the growth that ever makes massive debt more easily repaid.  New thinking and new leadership is critical to find solutions rather than serially lying and attempting to hide the problems.

8 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Irresponsible comments like this fit into irresponsible minds. I bet you also believe that Greeks deserve their current situation. I also bet that in a few years time you will also be tasting austerity as the medicine to your own country's recklessness but still think you are different and special.

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  2. It will take the collapse of the present system and the destruction of the mentality which permitted usury and thedebt money system. It was the protestants that emanicipated the usurers which lead to the establishment of central banks. For Catholics and Orthodox, usury is a mortal sin.
    In his book ' The Creature from Jekyll Island ' , Griifin stares that the Eastern Orthodox countries hada stable, non- usurious monetary system based on gold that lasted 800 years but a certain group of people were forbidden to be bankers, teachers and civil servants.

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  3. The humongous upside is that slowing growth and aging populations are a great boon to the environment. The earth cannot take decades and decades more of overconsumption, OECD-style.

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    1. The environment is more important to you than the suffering that will result for millions of people who will probably starve to death? Typical reaction of a brainwashed young person.
      How do you know how many people the earth can sustain? Malthus'predictions of over 200 years ago when the poulation of the world was something like 700 million have not come true when the poulation of the world is 7 billion.
      I think that when you are dying of starvation the last thing you will think of is how good this will be for the environment.
      I predict that the people of the poorer nations will be better equipped to survive the catastrophe than the spoilt young of the wealthier nations who have
      acquired no practical skills whatsoever, nor are have they acquired the social skills that the pre-internet generation picked up naturally. When I was a kid most people could plant, pluck a chicken, milk a cow, knit, sew, cook, knew the rudiments of car engines, woodwork etc.
      As far as I can see the generation that has been most ill prepared to face difficulties will face the hardest times ever.

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  4. Environmentalism and climate change are the means by which governments want to have more power and impose more regulations on the civilian populations under their control. Their goal is to be able to ration energy, food and water; to reduce everybody to the same level and to have a compliant population which will accept the restrictions without complaint, all for the sake of "sustainability" or the "environment". I have come to detest the words "green", "environment", "sustainable" and "ecology"
    I can easily see governments using these powers to starve or freeze out rebellious groups of people who do not agree with them.
    They start the brainwashing very early in schools. I remember my own children 30 years ago, at the age of four or five, doing projects about animals in extinction because of the activities of evil mankind. They are taught to give more importance to the lives of animals than that of human beings. Mankind is seen to be a scourge on the planet. They have been softened up to accept abortion and euthanasia.The result being that the outcry over the aborting of babies and selling fetal tissue has been relatively muted. There is now a general acceptance of euthanasia, even in the cases of handicapped children and depressed people. Citizens of the Netherlands can call up mobile euthanasia units and asked to be killed if they don't feel like living any more.
    Young people nowadays have no more empathy with their fellow human beings. Alan 2012 can regard with equanimity and complacency the thought of old people being killed off by starvation, not realizing that young people are just as likely to suffer the same fate. But treat an animal cruelly and they are up in arms.
    For my whole life I've been anti-brain washing my children, contradicting the teaching they receive, especially in history and science. But it is an uphill task because you not only have to contend with teachers but television and the internet which reinforce the same message. In the country where I live homeschooling is illegal.
    My own kids have been very skeptical; they think their parent is a weirdo. It is only lately that I've gained more credibility when they see things that I predicted twenty years ago panning out the way I said they would.
    I don't know if when the crash comes it will be controlled crash or that it will catch the powers that be unawares without all the population control mechanisms in place. I sincerely hope the latter because then we might have a chance to escape the fate they have in store for us.

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  5. Hi Chris and hunt, you make a great team. I am unable to find fault with anything you both have mentioned recently. You two provide lots for me to think about, thank you.

    I think it boils down to a central control issue vs independent thought and action. The pendulum swings very slowly and I feel that a turning point is approaching.

    A smooth transition or a chaotic one? Only time will tell. The turning point for me was 2012 when I looked into the financial system and was appalled.

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  6. I only react to posts. I'm not original enough to create them. But thanks all the same!

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