Monday, August 31, 2015

Global "Growth"...Forget China or India, It's All About Africa (& Why That's Not Good)!!!

Many economists are just starting to catch on to the fact China, as a center of growth, is dead.  If you haven't got this  However, the real transition you should be thinking about is that from India to Africa and all the implications involved. 

First chart below, the world of populations of Africa, India, and China plus percentages of global population.

In the chart below, though these 3 entities represent 52% of earths population, they represent 65% of 2015 global population growth.  Of note,  Africa's annual population growth is double that of India and quadruple that of China. 

So, probably worth contemplating the relative impact of the ongoing changing source of population growth from higher income  to lower income Africa.  On any given day, Africa includes about 57 countries (give or take a few) and range in income from highest, Equatorial Guinea at approx. $21k/yr, all the way down to Congo or Burundi with incomes of approx. $300/yr (GDP/(PPP) per capita).  So, if you put it all together and weight it evenly...the average African income comes out to about $2,383/yr.  To put this in perspective, this is less than half of the average Indian's (per capita), less than 1/5th the average Chinese (per capita), or less than 1/20th the average American (per capita). 

So, the fact that higher income population growth is fading away and being replaced by very low income population growth coinciding with global economic slowdown shouldn't come as a surprise...and shouldn't be any surprises that global consumption and economic growth will continue falling.

The last chart (below) makes it very clear where all growth is trending (Africa rising, India fading, China turning outright negative)...and the implications will be understood by all but those paid not to understand.

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