Sunday, July 5, 2015

Global & US Population Growth and Fertility Rates Slow...Debt, Leverage, and Derivatives Skyrocket

The flow of population growth (and new potential consumers) has slowed despite the larger total global population.

And the slowdown of global population growth has everything to do with this (below)...a neutral fertility rate is considered to be 2.1 children per female.

Everyone knows Japan, Germany, and Russia have been well below the redline of negative birth rates for decades while the US has recently joined them.

And the supposed "engines of growth", China, Brazil, also below the redline of negative birth rates.  India soon to join them below the redline.

And if population growth is dying out, where will funds find their 7.5% to 8% returns to meet their plan redemptions???  Perhaps your local central banker can explain where that "growth" will come from!

And a focus on the US...below you can see the peak of population growth and subsequent "slowing flow" coincided with the beginnings of massive government indebtedness.

But more importantly, consider where the population "growth" is coming from...not from a surge of births (0-55 yr/old population is barely positive) but a surging 55+ year old population simply living longer than any modern generation has.  These 55+ year olds are moving into or already in fixed incomes and spending at 3/5th's their working years rates.  These folks are in or moving into liquidation mode and not recognizable as typical "American consumers".

All this adds up to not just subpar economic growth but almost surely real economic no growth or more likely declines across advanced and developing nations alike (aka, a depression unlike any seen in modern times)...and major indebtedness, leverage, and derivatives are simply avoiding the inevitable economic reset and reorganization.

EXTRA CREDIT - GREEK Population Breakdown...not the stuff of economic "growth"

EXTRA CREDIT II - Puerto Rico Population

And the birth rate in this predominantly Catholic US territory is even lower than the US average.