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Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Random Thoughts As We Circle the Drain

For the first time in US history, the largest group (broken down by age) of the employed population is the 55+ segment.  This quietly happened in late 2014 and will persist for some time. 

The chart below highlights the flow of the baby boom...but notice the headwaters of population gains of birth rates and immigration only continue to slow further.




The implications of this change are simply economically disastrous...old working longer and making less...leaving less available for the young intended to pay for the older generations retirement.  Simply put, it's economic infanticide.
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Given the massive debt loads (below), declining core populations (above), and ramping older generation (above)...the Fed's happy talk of impending rate hike just seems plain stupid.

Below chart shows the headwaters of population growth are suffering a "drought"...without the growth upstream and lack of jobs growth slowing immigration, a declining population is just a matter of time.

Chart below shows the last refuge of "growth"...old living longer and their refusal to die is the true cause of our current population growth...but within a decade it too will roll over.

It's hard to know which caused which, but the below chart shows clearly the breakdown of younger population segments including the 25-54yr old population and full time job creation has been temporarily covered by social programs such as SNAP.

Very noteworthy is population growth has barely outgained the rising SNAP beneficiaries and falling median real wages...interest rates can likely go no lower...meaning the only real driver for future home price appreciation is monetization coupled with wringing out every last bond holder and pouring their capital into real estate...pure and simple.

3 comments:

  1. Continuous growth is also known as cancer. When I was 20 there was 200 million people in the US. Now there is 318 million. A US as crowded as India is not something to hope for. The system has to change. I realize that hertofore - every attempt to civilize it has made it worse. Perhaps we will evolve into something sustainable. Just look at Aquaponics. That could revolutionize decentralized food production.

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  2. Hi Gold, my take on aquaponics is that it is incredibly productive but not very robust. However, your de-centralised and sustainable comments are the way to go. Big government and multinational companies don't share your view. I do. Best of luck with your future endeavours.

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  3. I tried aquaponics... it was a ton of work and $$$ for a minimal yield.

    Not recommended.

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