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Friday, May 1, 2015

Manufacturing Recovery or Manufactured Recovery?

A quick update on the state of manufacturing employment in America...when discussing "recovery" or effectiveness of trade agreements or the like it seems helpful to look at the actual, broad data sets. 

Many reasons exist for the drop in manufacturing employment from innovation, outsourcing, mechanization, automation, "robot-ation", etc. etc.  Still, the charts below speak for themselves and seem to imply manufacturing will not be an employment driver ever again for America...just as farming will never be an employment driver again as it was in the 19th century. 

All clear?!?  So, maybe a better question would be what will the driver of employment be in the 21st century?  To make it easier, I think we can also cross off housing and construction from the list. 

With so much debt and such large unfunded liabilities, it would seem important that we identify where all the potential new employment (and tax revenue) will come simultaneously businesses across the globe continues to rightly identify how they'll continue to do more with less...including less employees.

Seems the conundrum of the 21st century.  Thoughts?


  1. Farming and manufacturing will become big again. Global demand for dollars is falling and after a massive dollar devaluation, your exports will be inexpensive. However, global demand will be weak.

    The financial economy grows faster than the real economy. By 2045 the financial economy will be big enough for everyone on the planet to retire. I expect some 'unexpected' catastrophic global financial 'event' will prevent such a utopia from being reached. The financial economy will experience a severe contraction because we can't all retire.

    Actually, due to the way wealth is distributed, a dozen families will own, pretty much, everything by 2045 or things will have changed abruptly and dramatically.

    The next 30 years cannot be the same as the last 30 years. Thoughtfull observation of the trends since 1972 gives us more than enough information. Chris presents us that data very clearly. We need to give his work some serious thought. Our futures depend on it.

    Doom and gloom is the direction we are headed. We can choose to pause and think. Or simply blame bankers and politicians as we see fit. Bankers will blame the few rotten apples. Politicians will blame other politicians. That is the path to doom and gloom. Or we could try thinking. Just a thought.

  2. Why things can't remain the 'same'.
    The financial economy grows faster than the real economy. This implies the following.

    In 1970 one quarter of us could have retired for one year
    In 1985 one quarter of us could have retired for two years
    In 2000 one quarter of us could have retired for four years
    In 2015 one quarter of us could have retired for eight years
    Now, for next 45 years to be similar.
    In 2030 one quarter of us could have retired for sixteen years
    In 2045 one half of us could have retired for sixteen years
    In 2060 all of us could have retired for sixteen years
    If that looks ok to you then come 2105 nobody will have to work, ever. Lifespans of up to 128 years, on average, requiring nobody to ever work.

    So, when I mention 50 - 90% financial collapses it is because not having a collapse makes zero sense to me.

    Our current financial system does not distribute wealth equitably. So, in 2105 I expect most to be poor with an ultra wealthy controlling elite. Which seems just as unlikely as everyone never working. So, crash it is. Nothing else makes sense.


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